State of Compute
##TLDR: Update on the AI Ouroboros.
Links 🔗:
Meta: http://archive.today/i8fLH
Dell: http://archive.today/Pxs5W
HP: http://archive.today/s2UIM
SK Hynix: http://archive.today/kwHjG
TrendForce MacBook Neo: https://archive.is/7vGdb
TSMC 2NM: https://archive.is/JNqyu
Huang at GTC sees $1T: http://archive.today/9uxQz
IDC Projections: http://archive.today/zq9i6
Gartner Projections: https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-02-26-gartner-says-surging-memory-costs-will-reduce-global-pc-and-smartphone-shipments-in-2026
Meta is looking to cut 20% of its work force. RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs. Dell has quietly cut 10% of its workforce. SK Hynix sees this RAM shortage lasting till 2030.
Soaring memory costs are projected to drive worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4% and smartphone shipments to drop by 8.4% in 2026, compared to 2025 levels. This will increase PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13%, concentrating demand on premium devices and delaying upgrades. Entry-level PCs and basic smartphones will be disproportionately affected, with the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment expected to disappear by 2028.
TrendForce forecasts Apple’s notebook shipments will grow 7.7% YoY in 2026, pushing macOS market share to 13.2%, fueled by the company’s downward extension of price tiers, proactive pricing strategy, and strong supply chain control when compared to peers. Shipments of the MacBook Neo alone could reach 4–5 million units, depending on consumer acceptance of its 8 GB memory configuration
Apple has already cornered half of TSMCs 2NM process for the upcoming M6 projected end of this year. Now they can shove their discounted binned iPhone chips into the Neo to reshape consumer compute from the ground up. Just like their elite theory of old they are looking to take a large chunk out of the Chromebook EDU segment.
##Further Watching:
Further watching: